Last year, awards experts had their work cut out for them. In the aftermath of the autumn festivals, just two films (La La Land and Moonlight) emerged victorious, culminating in both teams mounting the steps of Hollywood’s Dolby stage on Oscar night. The landscape today is a lot less certain. Who deserves a trophy? A scrappy first-time film-maker? An overlooked 89-year-old screenwriter? One thing we know for sure is that the following films represent the best of this award season’s extraordinary output.

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Universal Pictures

1. Get Out

The flash of a camera. The clinking of a teaspoon. The humming of crickets in a suburban street. Get Out’s accumulation of seemingly banal details makes it so masterfully unsettling. The movie is something of a modern-day Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner? that sees an African-American (Daniel Kaluuya) visit the parents of his white girlfriend (Allison Williams) and gradually discover a sinister truth brewing beneath mind games and micro-aggressions.

Such a searing satire on the ailing state of race relations in the US could not be more timely. The film was released a month after the inauguration of Donald Trump, a man who questions the legitimacy of Obama’s birth certificate, dismisses the Black Lives Matter movement and is endorsed by the KKK. Propelled by a playful undercurrent of dark humour, Get Out became a runaway success, grossing a staggering $254 million with a modest budget of $4.5 million. The film marks the sketch comedian Jordan Peele’s first foray into cinema as a writer-director, and has already established him as an auteur to watch. Get Out may have hit multiplexes 10 months ago (making it by far the year’s oldest awards contender), but its sucker punch to the status quo has ensured it’s impossible to forget.

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2. The Disaster Artist

Last year, La La Land made us believe that “the ones who dream" were destined for greatness. But what about those of us who aren't talented? Enter Tommy Wiseau (James Franco), a misguided fantasist boasting straggly black hair, an unplaceable Eastern European accent and ambitions of being the next James Dean. The Disaster Artist is a hysterical behind-the-scenes exposé tracing the making of Wiseau’s self-financed vanity project, The Room. An incomprehensible, semi-pornographic hotchpotch widely regarded as the worst film ever made, The Room has gained a cult following of diehard fans who attend late-night showings to hurl abuse, plastic spoons and American footballs at the screen.

James Franco – who also directed The Disaster Artist – has earned plaudits for his sensitive, yet hilarious, impersonation of the film-maker. He clinched the Best Actor gong at the Gothams (the first awards show of the season) and has secured nods from the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild (SAG). His campaigning efforts have even seen him copy Wiseau by erecting a billboard on Hollywood’s Highland Avenue emblazoned with a promotional phone number. So be sure to ring +1 323 654 6192 to speak with Franco in character. Bonus points for starting the call with: Oh hi, Mark.

‘The Disaster Artist’ is out now.

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Sony Pictures Classics

3. All the Money in the World

This film has had by far the most dramatic post-production period of any other this year. It all looked so promising. The John Paul Getty III kidnapping biopic All the Money in the World – starring Michelle Williams, Mark Wahlberg and Kevin Spacey – was due to premiere at the prestigious American Film Institute Festival last month. In the wake of the deluge of sexual-misconduct allegations levied against Kevin Spacey, the distributor pulled the movie, now tarnished as box-office poison. There was talk of postponing the film until June; there was talk of not releasing it at all.

Eventually the director Ridley Scott made the (somewhat insane) decision to replace Spacey with Christopher Plummer, reshooting the relevant scenes in only six weeks to still comply with its original winter opening. According to Variety, this cost the studio more than $10 million. Not all the money in the world, but a large sum nonetheless. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association recognised the last-minute efforts of the All the Money in the World team, nominating Williams, Plummer and Scott for Globes.

‘All the Money in the World’ is released on 5 January.

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Rex

4. Lady Bird

The directorial debut of Greta Gerwig (who made her name playing free spirits in Frances Ha and Mistress America), Lady Bird is a heartwarming meditation on a young girl’s experiences of friendship and family, love and longing during her final year of Catholic high school in Sacramento, California. Saoirse Ronan is Lady Bird, a wilful and wisecracking teenager who steadily forges her malleable identity into a more durable, well-rounded character.

The actress’ stunning portrayal of adolescence is completely lacking in vanity: a warts-and-all approach with acne scars, greasy pink hair and a peeling back of her spiky exterior to reveal the latent vulnerability beneath. Having already taken home top prizes at the Gothams and New York Film Critics Awards, the 23-year-old is set to continue the current trend of young women winning the Best Actress Oscar (like Emma Stone (2017), Brie Larson (2016) and Jennifer Lawrence (2013) before her). As well as drumming up buzz in the directing and screenplay categories, Lady Bird has a shot at the coveted Best Picture Academy Award. No film in 22 years has won this Oscar without a best ensemble cast nomination at the SAGs, so the fact that Gerwig’s movie scooped one up last week bodes extremely well for this astounding addition to the coming-of-age canon.

‘Lady Bird’ is released on 16 February.

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20th Century Fox

5. The Post

All the President’s Men (1976) would have you believe that male reporters were responsible for toppling the long-standing Watergate conspiracy. Steven Spielberg begs to differ. In his new film, The Post, the investigative journalist Kay Graham (Meryl Streep) leads the charge against corruption, alongside her editor Ben Bradlee (Tom Hanks). As America’s first female newspaper publisher, Graham battles not only the Nixon government, but also her sexist colleagues who doubt that a woman “has the resolve to make the tough choices”.

A political drama celebrating the importance of the free press is likely to go down a treat this year, since it so neatly parallels The New York Times’ autumn article that instigated the fall of Harvey Weinstein. Meryl Streep, as we have come to expect, is a force to be reckoned with in The Post, spitting out mile-a-minute dialogue and wrestling with the moral dilemma of printing the Pentagon Papers. As she said in her lauded speech when accepting her lifetime-achievement award at the Globes earlier this year: “We need the principled press to hold power to account, to call them on the carpet for every outrage. That's why our founders enshrined the press and its freedoms in our constitution.” The words of an “overrated” actress, right Mr President?

‘The Post' is released on 19 January.

6. The Shape of Water

Guillermo del Toro, the acclaimed Mexican director of Pan’s Labyrinth fame, has weaved another dreamy universe, this time stitching a twisted fairy-tale love story between a mute government-lab janitor (Sally Hawkins) and an amphibious tank-dwelling man (Doug Jones). Without making a sound, Hawkins delivers a moving, entirely gestural performance that has charmed critics – much like Jean Dujardin’s equally silent Oscar-winning turn in The Artist – and won her accolades from the LA and Boston film-critics circles, among others. Although the Academy has only ever named one fantasy film Best Picture in its 89-year history (Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003), The Shape of Water has raced to the forefront of the Golden Globes conversation, beating its competitors to become the most-nominated film of the year. We’ll just have to wait until the ceremony on 7 January to see if the monster movie will swim ahead of 2017’s other hopefuls.

‘The Shape of Water’ is released on 14 February.

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Sony Pictures Classics

7. Call Me by Your Name

“Call me by your name and I’ll call you by mine,” whispers Oliver (Armie Hammer) as he gently caresses the cheek of his lover Elio (Timothée Chalamet) in the soft darkness. The blossoming romance between these two men, that unfurls over six sun-dappled weeks in northern Italy, is utterly ravishing. The director Luca Guadagnino creates a sensory masterpiece by lingering over the finer details of their relationship: peach juice trickling down a chin, bicycle pedals whirring into action. Call Me by Your Name is a shining beacon of tolerance and acceptance, with a heartbreaking ending that will bring tears to your eyes. The breakthrough actor Chalamet has netted a string of prizes and, next to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, is deemed the frontrunner for the Best Actor Oscar. The 89-year-old writer James Ivory is looking similarly strong in the adapted-screenplay field; and the hauntingly beautiful Sufjan Stevens score could feasibly be rewarded in the original-song category.

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Neon and 30 West

8. I, Tonya

The highs and lows of mother-daughter relationships have been a recurring theme this awards season, with Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) and Mary J Blige (Mudbound) all garnering praise for their nuanced renditions of motherhood. In this biopic, Allison Janney steps into this role, playing the demeaning stage parent to Tonya Harding (Margot Robbie), the feisty figure-skating champion who swoops and glides across the ice as her mother viciously attacks her from the sidelines. I, Tonya charts the athlete’s meteoric rise to fame and explores how foul-mouthed aggression and violence result in her decline. The lead duo may not see eye to eye within the confines of the narrative, but with a slew of nominations from the Globes and the SAGs, Robbie and Janney could be ascending the podium in solidarity come January.

‘I, Tonya’ is released on 23 February.

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BFI

9. Phantom Thread

Givenchy had Audrey Hepburn; McQueen had Annabelle Neilson; and now Reynolds Woodcock (Daniel Day-Lewis) has Alma (Vicky Krieps). Phantom Thread delves deep into the stylish world of 1950s fashion in London, unravelling the tensions underpinning the relationship between creator and muse. Sartorial splendour aside, the main interest fuelling Paul Thomas Anderson’s period drama is that it marks the three-time Academy Award winner Daniel Day-Lewis’ final film. In light of the actor's retirement announcement in June, it is almost unthinkable that his swansong will fail to ensure his position on the Oscar ballot.

‘Phantom Thread’ is released on 2 February.

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

They say people cope with grief in different ways, and this certainly seems to be true of Mildred Hayes (Frances McDormand) who takes her local police (led by Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell) to task after the rape and murder of her teenage daughter. The expletive-spewing Hayes plasters accusatory messages on billboards challenging the town’s law enforcers to reopen her daughter’s unresolved case. She is a reckless firecracker of an anti-heroine. Whether she’s kicking a schoolchild in the crotch or flinging a petrol bomb at a police station, Mildred has an infectiously sincere desire to put these killers behind bars. Martin McDonagh's dark comedy triumphed at the Toronto International Film Festival, where it won the Best Picture-predicting People’s Choice prize, and has continued to gain momentum as the awards circuit nears the finishing line.

‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’ is released on 12 January.